Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has high morbidity and mortality worldwide, therefore there is of paramount importance to identify the risk factors in the populations at risk early in the course of illness. A strong correlation between severity of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and HbA1c, fasting insulin and insulin resistance has been reported. Accordingly, the MetS severity score (or MestS Z-score) can potentially be used to predict the risk of T2DM progression over time.

Aim: To evaluate the association the of MestS Z-score in first degree relatives (FDRs) of T2DM with the risk of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in future.

Methods: A prospective open cohort study was conducted between 2003-2018. At baseline, the sample comprised of 1766 FDRs of patients with T2DM who had a normal glucose tolerance test. Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated based on logistic regression. The receiver-operator characteristic analysis and area under the curve based on MetS Z-score were used to evaluate the risk of prediabetes and diabetes among the FDR population.

Results: Baseline MetS Z-scores were associated with the its latest values (P < 0.0001). Compared with individuals who were T2DM free at the end of follow up, those who developed T2DM had higher MetS Z-score at baseline (P < 0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analyses for every unit elevation in MetS Z-score at the baseline, the RR for developing future T2DM and prediabetes was (RR = 1.94, RR = 3.84), (RR = 1.5, RR = 2.17) in total population and female group, respectively (P < 0.05). The associations remained significant after adjusting the potential confounding variables. A cut off value of 0.97 and 0.94 was defined in the receiver-operator characteristic curve based on the MetS Z-score for differentiating female patients with diabetes and prediabetes from the normal population, respectively.

Conclusion: The MetS Z-score was associated with an increased risk of future T2DM. Appropriate interventions at earlier stages for preventing and attenuating MetS effects may be considered as an effective strategy for FDR as at-risk population.